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With only a few months left, 2024 is coming to a close. As we transition into 2025, we need to do some evaluation and projection to get ready for next year’s challenges.
For business players, the year-end prep work is essential. They must review the 2024 business performance and set up their 2025 agenda.
A thorough projection will provide business players with a clear overview of potential threats and opportunities, enabling them to adapt their strategies and action plans accordingly.
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The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu), on its website, has predicted consistent economic growth in Q3 (July-September) of 2024, supported by stable consumer spending and thriving investments.
The State Budget (APBN) remains on track through effective and efficient spending and solid mitigation of the slowing revenue trend.
In a similar tone, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs stated that throughout Q2 (April-June) of 2024, the country’s economy has been climbing up steadily and demonstrating strong resilience.
During this period, the national economy has seen a 5.05% growth year-on-year (YoY). A notable contributing factor was the controlled, low inflation of 2.13% in July 2024.
In Q1 (January-March) of 2024, Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.1% (YoY), primarily driven by high domestic demand from household and government spending, supported by the APBN.
Looking ahead, how will the country’s economic growth unfold in 2025? The Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the Indonesian government, has established the 2025 Macroeconomic Framework and Fiscal Policy Points (KEM-PPKF).
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During the House of People’s Representatives (DPR) plenary session, Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati said that the 2025 fiscal policy will focus on accelerating inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
The incumbent government is developing this policy during the transition period, with the next elected government set to implement it.
On the Kemenkeu official website, Rahadian Zulfadin, Associate Expert Policy Analyst at the Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF), highlighted the presidential transition period as a strategic moment for strengthening and securing national development agendas.
“We have to strengthen our fiscal policy to withstand economic shocks, support economic transformation, meet our economic growth targets, and ensure long-term sustainability,” Rahadian stated.
The upcoming year presents significant challenges for Indonesia. Increasing geopolitical tensions promise ongoing global economic uncertainties.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts global economic growth at a stagnant 3.2%, with high inflation projected at 4.5% in 2025.
Considering this climate, the 2025 KEM-PPKF anticipates a national economic growth of 5.1-5.5% with an inflation rate between 1.5-3.5%.
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For now, the government is keeping an eye on how things are progressing until the end of the year, and keeps coming up with updated projections for the next year. This ongoing efforts will hopefully result in an accurate national economic overview to inform the 2025 Draft State Budget (RAPBN).
In turn, the 2025 State Budget (APBN) is expected to be more realistic, and the fiscal policy, through the instrument of the 2025 APBN, is expected to optimize three functions—stabilization, allocation, and distribution—while keeping the APBN on track.
Given the current national economic trends, every business player must gear up and work on a solid plan for their business.
As a major player in transportation and logistics in the country, PT Serasi Autoraya, or SERA, is prepared to meet these challenges by providing comprehensive solutions for vehicle rental through TRAC, auction services through IBID, and logistics services through SELOG.